民进党2016年在台湾地区重返执政后，关于“台独”风险的相关讨论越来越多，其原因就在于人们对蔡英文执政下的两岸关系深感忧虑和不安。蔡英文当局拒不接受“九二共识”，破坏了两岸关系和平发展的政治基础，从而使两岸关系及台海局势的发展充满极大的变数和隐患。本书剖析了“台独”的主张及其分离主义的本质，围绕民进党重返执政后的“台独”风险为主线，分析了“台独”风险的表现形式、类型划分及其影响，并在此基础上，分析了美国支持“台独”势力的相关风险及其后果。本书认为，随着中国大陆实力的显著增强，大陆主导台海局势的能力大为增强，也从根本上抑制了“台独”势力的冒险冲动，以及降低了美国介入台海局势的意愿。

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第一章 两岸风雨七十年····································································3

第一节 海峡两岸隔海对峙 ······························································3

第二节 海峡两岸长期对抗······························································7

第三节 两岸民间重启交流···························································· 14

第二章 何为“台独”？·································································· 20

第一节 “台独”的出现及其主张····················································· 20

第二节 “台独”的类型划分··························································· 24

第三节 “台独”的发展阶段··························································· 31

第三章 “台独”最新发展及其影响····················································· 47

第一节 “台独”发展的最新态势····················································· 47

第二节 “台独”风险及社会影响····················································· 53

第三节 未来“台独”势力的发展趋向············································· 58

第四章 美国打“台湾牌”及其风险··················································· 63 第一节 美国长期打“台湾牌”························································ 63 第二节 特朗普打“台湾牌”的频率升高·········································· 72

第三节 美国频打“台湾牌”的风险················································ 76

第五章 大陆为何反对“台独”？······················································ 79

第一节 中华民族“大一统”思想根深蒂固······································· 79

第二节 台湾问题是中国的核心国家利益 ··········································82

第三节 在中华民族伟大复兴进程中实现国家统一······························ 85

第六章 “台独”风险的表现形式························································ 88

第一节 台湾内部引发的风险························································· 88

第二节 外部介入引发的风险 ·························································94 第三节 两岸互动引发的风险························································100

第七章 台海两岸军事对抗态势························································104

第一节 台海军事战略对抗···························································104

第二节 台海军事战略对抗的外部推力············································108

第三节 两岸军事实力对比态势 ···················································· 111

第四节 台海军事态势的基本特征·················································· 116

第八章 “台独梦”对撞“中国梦”·····················································121

第一节 中国共产党提出“中国梦”·················································121

第二节 “台独梦”的困境·····························································128

第三节 “中国梦”与“台独梦”的对撞···········································132

第九章 “台独”风险的类型与危害····················································134

第一节 低度风险·······································································134

第二节 中度风险·······································································136

第三节 重度风险·······································································139

第十章 民共为何缺乏互信？···························································143

第一节 为何没有民共关系？························································143

第二节 民共有哪些分歧？···························································145

第三节 民共缺乏有效沟通管道·····················································147

第十一章 美国为何靠不住？···························································149

第一节 台湾民意为何不相信美国？ ···············································149

第二节 美国是靠谱的主吗？························································151

第三节 台湾从来就不是美国的核心利益·········································156

第四节 中国崛起降低美国介入的意愿············································159

参考文献·······················································································164

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